Application of Machine Learning for Prediction of Solid Waste Generation

Authors

  • Ajaya Subedi Environmental Engineering Programme, Department of Civil Engineering, Pulchowk Campus, Institute of Engineering, Tribhuvan University, Lalitpur 44700, Nepal
  • Sahil Shrestha Environmental Engineering Programme, Department of Civil Engineering, Pulchowk Campus, Institute of Engineering, Tribhuvan University, Lalitpur 44700, Nepal
  • Shukra Raj Paudel Environmental Engineering Programme, Department of Civil Engineering, Pulchowk Campus, Institute of Engineering, Tribhuvan University, Lalitpur 44700, Nepal

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.63095/NBSEH.25.831599

Keywords:

Solid Waste, Machine Learning, Prediction Model

Abstract

Effective solid waste management requires adaptive planning and accurate forecasting of waste generation and composition. Accurate predictions require a deep understanding of key influencing factors, including population, urbanization, income, and temporal effects, which impact waste trends. Traditional models, including regression and fixed-effects analysis, struggle to capture these complex, non-linear relationships. Recently, machine learning (ML) techniques have emerged as powerful tools, leveraging large datasets and advanced computational methods to improve predictive accuracy. Nonetheless, challenges like data limitations, regional variability, and scalability hinder their practical implementation. This review explores and summarizes the significance of the essential factors for predicting solid waste generation and emphasizes new opportunities for real-time waste monitoring by integrating ML with emerging technologies like the Internet of Things (IoT). Enhanced sustainable waste management needs advances in model generalisability, data quality, and policy integration.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Kaza, S., Yao, L. C., Bhada-Tata, P., & Van Woerden, F., 2018, What a Waste 2.0: A Global Snapshot of Solid Waste Management to 2050. World Bank Publications. Available online at https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/d3f9d45e-115f-559b-b14f-28552410e90a (Accessed on 24 February 2025).

Makarichi, L., Jutidamrongphan, W., & Techato, K. A., 2018, The evolution of waste-to-energy incineration: A review. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 91, 812-821. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2018.04.088

Zhang, J., Zhang, S., & Liu, B., 2020, Degradation technologies and mechanisms of dioxins in municipal solid waste incineration fly ash: A review. Journal of Cleaner Production 250, 119507. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119507

Meena, M. D., Dotaniya, M. L., Meena, B. L., Rai, P. K., Antil, R. S., Meena, H. S., Meena, L.K., Dotaniya, C. K., Meena, V. S., Ghosh A., Meena, K. N., Singh, A. K., Meena, V. D., Moharana, P. C., Meena S. K., Srinivasarao, Ch., Meena, A. L., Chatterjee, S., Meena, D. K., Prajapat, M., & Meena, R. B., 2023, Municipal solid waste: Opportunities, challenges and management policies in India: A review. Waste Management Bulletin 1(1), 4-18. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wmb.2023.04.001

Fatimah, Y. A., Govindan, K., Murniningsih, R., & Setiawan, A., 2020, Industry 4.0 based sustainable circular economy approach for smart waste management system to achieve sustainable development goals: A case study of Indonesia. Journal of Cleaner Production 269, 122263. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.122263

Arun, C., & Sivashanmugam, P., 2017, Study on optimization of process parameters for enhancing the multi-hydrolytic enzyme activity in garbage enzyme produced from preconsumer organic waste. Bioresource Technology 226, 200-210. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biortech.2016.12.029

Kumar, A., Singh, E., Mishra, R., Lo, S. L., & Kumar, S., 2023, Global trends in municipal solid waste treatment technologies through the lens of sustainable energy development opportunity. Energy 275, 127471. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2023.127471

Hannan, M. A., Lipu, M. H., Akhtar, M., Begum, R. A., Al Mamun, M. A., Hussain, A., Mia, M. S., & Basri, H., 2020, Solid waste collection optimization objectives, constraints, modeling approaches, and their challenges toward achieving sustainable development goals. Journal of Cleaner Production 277, 123557. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.123557

Benítez, S. O., Lozano-Olvera, G., Morelos, R. A., & de Vega, C. A., 2008, Mathematical modeling to predict residential solid waste generation. Waste Management 28, S7-S13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wasman.2008.03.020

Johnstone, N., & Labonne, J., 2004, Generation of household solid waste in OECD countries: an empirical analysis using macroeconomic data. Land Economics 80(4), 529-538. https://doi.org/10.2307/3655808

Ali Abdoli, M., Falah Nezhad, M., Salehi Sede, R., & Behboudian, S., 2012, Longterm forecasting of solid waste generation by the artificial neural networks. Environmental Progress & Sustainable Energy 31(4), 628-636. https://doi.org/10.1002/ep.10591

Abbasi, M., & El Hanandeh, A., 2016, Forecasting municipal solid waste generation using artificial intelligence modelling approaches. Waste Management 56, 13-22. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wasman.2016.05.018

Ceylan, Z., 2020, Estimation of municipal waste generation of Turkey using socio-economic indicators by Bayesian optimization tuned Gaussian process regression. Waste Management & Research 38(8), 840-850. https://doi.org/10.1177/0734242X20906877

Nguyen, X. C., Nguyen, T. T. H., La, D. D., Kumar, G., Rene, E. R., Nguyen, D. D., Chang, S. W., Chung, W. J., Nguyen, X. H., Nguyen, V. K., 2021, Development of machine learning - based models to forecast solid waste generation in residential areas: A case study from Vietnam. Resources, Conservation and Recycling 167, 105381. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2020.105381

Zhang, C., Dong, H., Geng, Y., Liang, H., Liu, X., 2022, Machine learning based prediction for China's municipal solid waste under the shared socioeconomic pathways. Journal of Environmental Management 312, 114918. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.114918

Latif, S. D., Hazrin, N. A. B., Younes, M. K., Ahmed, A. N., & Elshafie, A., 2024, Evaluating different machine learning models for predicting municipal solid waste generation: a case study of Malaysia. Environment, Development and Sustainability 26, 12489–12512. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-023-03882-x

Miezah, K., Obiri-Danso, K., Kádár, Z., Fei-Baffoe, B., & Mensah, M. Y., 2015, Municipal solid waste characterization and quantification as a measure towards effective waste management in Ghana. Waste Management 46, 15-27. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wasman.2015.09.009

Guo, H. N., Wu, S. B., Tian, Y. J., Zhang, J., & Liu, H. T., 2021, Application of machine learning methods for the prediction of organic solid waste treatment and recycling processes: A review. Bioresource Technology 319, 124114. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biortech.2020.124114

He, R., Sandoval-Reyes, M., Scott, I., Semeano, R., Ferrao, P., Matthews, S., & Small, M. J., 2022, Global knowledge base for municipal solid waste management: Framework development and application in waste generation prediction. Journal of Cleaner Production 377, 134501. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.134501

Cipullo, S., Snapir, B., Prpich, G., Campo, P., & Coulon, F., 2019, Prediction of bioavailability and toxicity of complex chemical mixtures through machine learning models. Chemosphere 215, 388-395. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemosphere.2018.10.056

Kannangara, M., Dua, R., Ahmadi, L., & Bensebaa, F., 2018, Modelling and prediction of regional municipal solid waste generation and diversion in Canada using machine learning approaches. Waste Management 74, 3-15. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wasman.2017.11.057

Jalili, M., & Noori, R., 2007, Prediction of Municipal Solid Waste Generation by Use of Artificial Neural Network: A Case Study of Mashhad. International Journal of Environmental Research 2(1), 13-22. https://doi.org/10.22059/ijer.2010.17

Singh, T., & Uppaluri, R. V. S., 2023, Machine learning tool-based prediction and forecasting of municipal solid waste generation rate: a case study in Guwahati, Assam, India. International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology 20, 12207–12230. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-022-04644-4

Liang, X., Ji, L., Xie, Y., & Huang, G., 2022, Economic-Environment-Energy (3E) objective-driven integrated municipal waste management under deep complexities–A novel multi-objective approach. Sustainable Cities and Society 87, 104190. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2022.104190

Sosunova, I., & Porras, J., 2022, IoT-Enabled Smart Waste Management Systems for Smart Cities: A Systematic Review, IEEE Access 10, 73326-73363. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2022.3188308

Mintz, K. K., Henn, L., Park, J., & Kurman, J., 2019, What predicts household waste management behaviors? Culture and type of behavior as moderators. Resources, Conservation and Recycling 145, 11-18. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2019.01.045

Namoun, A., Tufail, A., Khan, M. Y., Alrehaili, A., Syed, T. A., & BenRhouma, O., 2022, Solid Waste Generation and Disposal Using Machine Learning Approaches: A Survey of Solutions and Challenges. Sustainability 14(20), 13578. https://doi.org/10.3390/su142013578

This article provides a comprehensive review of both standalone and hybrid machine learning (ML) methodologies, emphasizing their applications in waste generation forecasting. It further examines the critical factors influencing waste generation, including demographic, regulatory, socio-economic and temporal characteristics. The use of ML in solid waste prediction modelling results from the growing complexity of influencing parameters and the expanding availability of relevant datasets

Downloads

Additional Files

Published

2025-04-12

How to Cite

Subedi, A., Shrestha, S., & Paudel, S. R. (2025). Application of Machine Learning for Prediction of Solid Waste Generation. Natural Built Social Environment Health, 1(2), 14–33. https://doi.org/10.63095/NBSEH.25.831599

Most read articles by the same author(s)